Ericsson’s ramped-up delivery of 5G wireless communications products in the United States paid off, according to market research firm Mobile Experts. The firm said Ericsson leapt into the No. 1 position in the radio access network (RAN) market for 2021. The figures below show how the market has shifted, as well as the trends over the next five years.
Huawei, which dropped from first to third place following runner-up Nokia, had a shortfall of roughly $4 billion last year, because of Huawei’s inability to produce high-capacity time-division duplex (TDD) base stations, Mobile Experts said. It said that although Huawei produced hundreds of thousands of base stations, the company was hamstrung by U.S. Government sanctions and achieved much lower dollar value than its western competitors.
“Our approach to forecasting is deeply analytical, using data from more than 100 sources, rather than simply the inputs of five original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), said Joe Madden chief analyst at Mobile Experts. “This analyst team has been creating some of the most accurate, detailed forecasting on the market for over a decade. We have developed relationships with suppliers, operators and vendors that give us data for a three-pronged approach to triangulation on mobile infrastructure revenue.”
Mobile Experts’ models show the RAN market growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3 percent, with −1 percent growth in macro base stations and 25 to 35 percent growth in millimeter-wave and software segments.
“Overall, the RAN market is looking up,” Madden said. “After 30 years of boom-and-bust cycles, the market is reaching a peak, with 5G deployment in its active mode this year. In coming years, we see new revenue coming in from private enterprises to offset the natural drop in communications service provider sales; specifically, the private LTE and 5G market will grow by 19 percent, accounting for more than $4 billion in 2026. As a result, the total RAN market will remain near its 5G peak for a few years, with the possibility for growth in the longer term.”